Liga 3 badgeLiga 3 · 2 May 2026AI PICK

1º Dezembro badge1º DezembrovsCaldas badgeCaldas

2 - 1
Close

Full time · 3 of 4 right, 1 close · every pick published before kick-off

Model said
65.0%
Market said
59.9%
Edge
+5.1 pts
Best odds
1.67

The call, locked before kick-off

Close

Under 2.5 Goals

Goals Over/Under · best price 1.67

MediumEdge +5.1%
Our model65.0%
The market59.9%

The market underrated this by 5.1 percentage points. That gap is the only reason we published the pick.

What the model saw

Moderate prediction - medium confidence

How the two sides compared

1º Dezembro badge

1º Dezembro

Attack48
Defence46
Form33
Caldas badge

Caldas

Attack39
Defence40
Form38

Attack, defence and form are the pre-game snapshot from the last five matches, exactly as the model saw them.

Every market we called

3 of 4 right, 1 close

Double Chance

12 (Home or Away)

Edge +6.9%
Our model85.0%
The market78.1%
Edge
+6.9
Odds
1.28

Goals Over/Under

Under 2.5 Goals

Edge +5.1%Close
Our model65.0%
The market59.9%
Edge
+5.1
Odds
1.67

Draw No Bet

1º Dezembro (DNB)

Correct
Our model55.0%
The market57.1%
Edge
-2.1
Odds
1.75

Match Winner

1º Dezembro Win

Correct
Our model48.2%
The market50.0%
Edge
-1.8
Odds
2.00

Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score: Yes

Correct
Our model46.5%
The market54.1%
Edge
-7.6
Odds
1.85

Odds are the best price available when the prediction was published. Edge is model probability minus bookmaker implied probability.

We called 3 of 4 markets right here.
This weekend's fixtures are already live.

Every pick published before kick-off, with the reasoning and the confidence shown. Wins and losses both stay on the record.