9 de Octubrevs
El Nacional
3 - 1Full time · 3 of 4 right · every pick published before kick-off
- Model said
- 67.5%
- Market said
- 54.1%
- Edge
- +13.4 pts
- Best odds
- 1.85
The call, locked before kick-off
MissUnder 2.5 Goals
Goals Over/Under · best price 1.85
The market underrated this by 13.4 percentage points. That gap is the only reason we published the pick.
What the model saw
Moderate prediction - medium confidence
How the two sides compared
9 de Octubre
El Nacional
Attack, defence and form are the pre-game snapshot from the last five matches, exactly as the model saw them.
Every market we called
3 of 4 right
Double Chance
12 (Home or Away)
- Edge
- +3.0
- Odds
- 1.22
Goals Over/Under
Under 2.5 Goals
- Edge
- +13.4
- Odds
- 1.85
Match Winner
9 de Octubre Win
- Edge
- -10.6
- Odds
- 1.33
Draw No Bet
9 de Octubre (DNB)
- Edge
- +0.9
- Odds
- 1.75
Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score: Yes
- Edge
- -9.3
- Odds
- 1.85
Correct Score
Score: 1-0
- Edge
- +2.4
- Odds
- 6.32
Odds are the best price available when the prediction was published. Edge is model probability minus bookmaker implied probability.
Most likely scorelines
Model distribution before kick-off. The actual result is highlighted.
1-0
18.2%
0-1
12.8%
0-0
11.6%
We called 3 of 4 markets right here.
This weekend's fixtures are already live.
Every pick published before kick-off, with the reasoning and the confidence shown. Wins and losses both stay on the record.