Primera División · 11 August 2026AI PICK

A. ItalianovsNublense

2 - 2

Correct

Full time · 2 of 4 right · every pick published before kick-off

Model said: 54.6%
Market said: 53.8%
Edge: +0.8 pts
Best odds: 1.80

The call, locked before kick-off

Correct

Both Teams To Score: Yes

Both Teams To Score · best price 1.80

LowEdge +0.8%

Our model54.6%

The market53.8%

The market underrated this by 0.8 percentage points. That gap is the only reason we published the pick.

What the model saw

Close match - low confidence

How the two sides compared

A. Italiano

Attack44

Defence56

Form53

Nublense

Attack59

Defence55

Form69

Attack, defence and form are the pre-game snapshot from the last five matches, exactly as the model saw them.

Every market we called

2 of 4 right

Double Chance

12 (Home or Away)

Miss

Our model72.7%

The market73.5%

Edge: -0.8
Odds: 1.36

Draw No Bet

Nublense (DNB)

Void

Our model55.6%

The market57.1%

Edge: -1.5
Odds: 1.75

Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score: Yes

Edge +0.8%Correct

Our model54.6%

The market53.8%

Edge: +0.8
Odds: 1.80

Goals Over/Under

Over 2.5 Goals

Edge +7.8%Correct

Our model54.5%

The market46.7%

Edge: +7.8
Odds: 2.05

Match Winner

Nublense Win

Edge +10.8%Miss

Our model43.1%

The market32.3%

Edge: +10.8
Odds: 3.10

Correct Score

Score: 1-2

Miss

Our model9.1%

The market10.5%

Edge: -1.4
Odds: 9.52

Odds are the best price available when the prediction was published. Edge is model probability minus bookmaker implied probability.

Most likely scorelines

Model distribution before kick-off. The actual result is highlighted.

1-2

9.1%

1-1

12.1%

2-1

7.5%

We called 2 of 4 markets right here.
This weekend's fixtures are already live.

Every pick published before kick-off, with the reasoning and the confidence shown. Wins and losses both stay on the record.

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