Liga de Ascenso · 14 August 2026AI PICK

AD CarmelitavsFutbol Consultants Moravia

1 - 1

Full time · 1 of 3 right, 1 close · every pick published before kick-off

Model said: 53.7%
Market said: 47.6%
Edge: +6.1 pts
Best odds: 2.10

The call, locked before kick-off

Over 2.5 Goals

Goals Over/Under · best price 2.10

LowEdge +6.1%

Our model53.7%

The market47.6%

The market underrated this by 6.1 percentage points. That gap is the only reason we published the pick.

What the model saw

Close match - low confidence

How the two sides compared

AD Carmelita

Attack50

Defence50

Form50

Futbol Consultants Moravia

Attack50

Defence50

Form50

Attack, defence and form are the pre-game snapshot from the last five matches, exactly as the model saw them.

Every market we called

1 of 3 right, 1 close

Double Chance

1X (Home or Draw)

Edge +2.7%

Our model72.1%

The market69.4%

Edge: +2.7
Odds: 1.44

Draw No Bet

AD Carmelita (DNB)

Edge +4.9%Void

Our model62.0%

The market57.1%

Edge: +4.9
Odds: 1.75

Goals Over/Under

Over 2.5 Goals

Edge +6.1%Close

Our model53.7%

The market47.6%

Edge: +6.1
Odds: 2.10

Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score: Yes

Correct

Our model52.8%

The market54.1%

Edge: -1.3
Odds: 1.85

Match Winner

AD Carmelita Win

Edge +4.6%Miss

Our model43.1%

The market38.5%

Edge: +4.6
Odds: 2.60

Correct Score

Score: 2-1

Miss

Our model9.1%

The market10.4%

Edge: -1.3
Odds: 9.57

Odds are the best price available when the prediction was published. Edge is model probability minus bookmaker implied probability.

Most likely scorelines

Model distribution before kick-off. The actual result is highlighted.

2-1

9.1%

1-1

13.7% · actual

1-0

8.5%

We called 1 of 3 markets right here.
This weekend's fixtures are already live.

Every pick published before kick-off, with the reasoning and the confidence shown. Wins and losses both stay on the record.

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