Alianza Valleduparvs
Real Santander
3 - 0Full time · 3 of 4 right, 1 close · every pick published before kick-off
- Model said
- 66.0%
- Market said
- 54.1%
- Edge
- +11.9 pts
- Best odds
- 1.85
The call, locked before kick-off
CorrectBoth Teams To Score: No
Both Teams To Score · best price 1.85
The market underrated this by 11.9 percentage points. That gap is the only reason we published the pick.
What the model saw
Moderate prediction - medium confidence
How the two sides compared
Alianza Valledupar
Real Santander
Attack, defence and form are the pre-game snapshot from the last five matches, exactly as the model saw them.
Every market we called
3 of 4 right, 1 close
Double Chance
12 (Home or Away)
- Edge
- +13.6
- Odds
- 1.40
Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score: No
- Edge
- +11.9
- Odds
- 1.85
Goals Over/Under
Under 2.5 Goals
- Edge
- +9.7
- Odds
- 1.90
Match Winner
Alianza Valledupar Win
- Edge
- +10.7
- Odds
- 2.00
Draw No Bet
Alianza Valledupar (DNB)
- Edge
- -0.1
- Odds
- 1.75
Correct Score
Score: 1-0
- Edge
- +2.9
- Odds
- 5.25
Odds are the best price available when the prediction was published. Edge is model probability minus bookmaker implied probability.
Most likely scorelines
Model distribution before kick-off. The actual result is highlighted.
1-0
21.9%
0-0
20.5%
0-1
15.2%
We called 3 of 4 markets right here.
This weekend's fixtures are already live.
Every pick published before kick-off, with the reasoning and the confidence shown. Wins and losses both stay on the record.