Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B · 23 August 2026AI PICK

AlpendoradavsCamacha

1 - 2

Correct

Full time · 2 of 4 right · every pick published before kick-off

Model said: 53.8%
Market said: 50.8%
Edge: +3.0 pts
Best odds: 1.97

The call, locked before kick-off

Correct

Both Teams To Score: Yes

Both Teams To Score · best price 1.97

LowEdge +3.0%

Our model53.8%

The market50.8%

The market underrated this by 3.0 percentage points. That gap is the only reason we published the pick.

What the model saw

Close match - low confidence

How the two sides compared

Alpendorada

Attack50

Defence50

Form50

Camacha

Attack50

Defence50

Form50

Attack, defence and form are the pre-game snapshot from the last five matches, exactly as the model saw them.

Every market we called

2 of 4 right

Double Chance

1X (Home or Draw)

Our model71.1%

The market76.9%

Edge: -5.8
Odds: 1.30

Draw No Bet

Alpendorada (DNB)

Edge +1.4%Miss

Our model59.2%

The market57.8%

Edge: +1.4
Odds: 1.73

Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score: Yes

Edge +3.0%Correct

Our model53.8%

The market50.8%

Edge: +3.0
Odds: 1.97

Goals Over/Under

Over 2.5 Goals

Edge +11.3%Correct

Our model53.7%

The market42.4%

Edge: +11.3
Odds: 2.36

Match Winner

Alpendorada Win

Miss

Our model42.1%

The market45.7%

Edge: -3.6
Odds: 2.19

Correct Score

Score: 2-1

Miss

Our model9.1%

The market10.4%

Edge: -1.3
Odds: 9.57

Odds are the best price available when the prediction was published. Edge is model probability minus bookmaker implied probability.

Most likely scorelines

Model distribution before kick-off. The actual result is highlighted.

2-1

9.1%

1-1

13.7%

1-0

8.5%

We called 2 of 4 markets right here.
This weekend's fixtures are already live.

Every pick published before kick-off, with the reasoning and the confidence shown. Wins and losses both stay on the record.

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