Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A badgeCampeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A · 18 April 2026AI PICK

AR São Martinho badgeAR São MartinhovsMonção badgeMonção

3 - 1
Miss

Full time · 3 of 5 right · every pick published before kick-off

Model said
70.4%
Market said
42.6%
Edge
+27.8 pts
Best odds
2.35

The call, locked before kick-off

Miss

Under 2.5 Goals

Goals Over/Under · best price 2.35

High confidenceEdge +27.8%
Our model70.4%
The market42.6%

The market underrated this by 27.8 percentage points. That gap is the only reason we published the pick.

What the model saw

Moderate prediction - medium confidence

How the two sides compared

AR São Martinho badge

AR São Martinho

Attack29
Defence63
Form40
Monção badge

Monção

Attack31
Defence38
Form22

Attack, defence and form are the pre-game snapshot from the last five matches, exactly as the model saw them.

Every market we called

3 of 5 right

Double Chance

12 (Home or Away)

Correct
Our model85.0%
The market92.6%
Edge
-7.6
Odds
1.08

Goals Over/Under

Under 2.5 Goals

Edge +27.8%Miss
Our model70.4%
The market42.6%
Edge
+27.8
Odds
2.35

Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score: No

Edge +6.1%Miss
Our model60.2%
The market54.1%
Edge
+6.1
Odds
1.85

Match Winner

AR São Martinho Win

Edge +6.8%Correct
Our model56.8%
The market50.0%
Edge
+6.8
Odds
2.00

Draw No Bet

AR São Martinho (DNB)

Correct
Our model51.0%
The market57.1%
Edge
-6.1
Odds
1.75

Odds are the best price available when the prediction was published. Edge is model probability minus bookmaker implied probability.

We called 3 of 5 markets right here.
This weekend's fixtures are already live.

Every pick published before kick-off, with the reasoning and the confidence shown. Wins and losses both stay on the record.