Serie D badgeSerie D · 26 April 2026AI PICK

Araguaína badgeAraguaínavsIndependência badgeIndependência

1 - 1
Correct

Full time · 2 of 3 right · every pick published before kick-off

Model said
65.0%
Market said
61.7%
Edge
+3.3 pts
Best odds
1.62

The call, locked before kick-off

Correct

Under 2.5 Goals

Goals Over/Under · best price 1.62

MediumEdge +3.3%
Our model65.0%
The market61.7%

The market underrated this by 3.3 percentage points. That gap is the only reason we published the pick.

What the model saw

Moderate prediction - medium confidence

How the two sides compared

Araguaína badge

Araguaína

Attack48
Defence59
Form49
Independência badge

Independência

Attack39
Defence40
Form27

Attack, defence and form are the pre-game snapshot from the last five matches, exactly as the model saw them.

Every market we called

2 of 3 right

Double Chance

12 (Home or Away)

Edge +6.9%
Our model85.0%
The market78.1%
Edge
+6.9
Odds
1.28

Goals Over/Under

Under 2.5 Goals

Edge +3.3%Correct
Our model65.0%
The market61.7%
Edge
+3.3
Odds
1.62

Match Winner

Araguaína Win

Edge +10.0%Miss
Our model60.0%
The market50.0%
Edge
+10.0
Odds
2.00

Draw No Bet

Araguaína (DNB)

Void
Our model55.0%
The market57.1%
Edge
-2.1
Odds
1.75

Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score: Yes

Correct
Our model46.5%
The market47.6%
Edge
-1.1
Odds
2.10

Odds are the best price available when the prediction was published. Edge is model probability minus bookmaker implied probability.

We called 2 of 3 markets right here.
This weekend's fixtures are already live.

Every pick published before kick-off, with the reasoning and the confidence shown. Wins and losses both stay on the record.