Primera División RFEF - Group 1 badgePrimera División RFEF - Group 1 · 24 April 2026AI PICK

Arenas Getxo badgeArenas GetxovsMérida AD badgeMérida AD

2 - 0
Miss

Full time · 4 of 5 right · every pick published before kick-off

Model said
57.1%
Market said
52.4%
Edge
+4.7 pts
Best odds
1.91

The call, locked before kick-off

Miss

Both Teams To Score: Yes

Both Teams To Score · best price 1.91

MediumEdge +4.7%
Our model57.1%
The market52.4%

The market underrated this by 4.7 percentage points. That gap is the only reason we published the pick.

What the model saw

Moderate prediction - medium confidence

How the two sides compared

Arenas Getxo badge

Arenas Getxo

Attack53
Defence39
Form51
Mérida AD badge

Mérida AD

Attack50
Defence50
Form53

Attack, defence and form are the pre-game snapshot from the last five matches, exactly as the model saw them.

Every market we called

4 of 5 right

Double Chance

12 (Home or Away)

Edge +6.9%Correct
Our model85.0%
The market78.1%
Edge
+6.9
Odds
1.28

Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score: Yes

Edge +4.7%Miss
Our model57.1%
The market52.4%
Edge
+4.7
Odds
1.91

Draw No Bet

Arenas Getxo (DNB)

Correct
Our model53.0%
The market57.1%
Edge
-4.1
Odds
1.75

Goals Over/Under

Under 2.5 Goals

Correct
Our model51.9%
The market60.6%
Edge
-8.7
Odds
1.65

Match Winner

Arenas Getxo Win

Correct
Our model47.6%
The market50.0%
Edge
-2.4
Odds
2.00

Odds are the best price available when the prediction was published. Edge is model probability minus bookmaker implied probability.

We called 4 of 5 markets right here.
This weekend's fixtures are already live.

Every pick published before kick-off, with the reasoning and the confidence shown. Wins and losses both stay on the record.