Primeira Liga badgePrimeira Liga · 16 August 2026AI PICK

Arouca badgeAroucavsMoreirense badgeMoreirense

4 - 0
Miss

Full time · 1 of 5 right · every pick published before kick-off

We called
Under 2.5 Goals
Model confidence
53.7%
Markets called
1 of 5 right
Final score
4 - 0

The call, locked before kick-off

Miss

Under 2.5 Goals

Goals Over/Under · best price 1.70

LowEdge -2.9%
Our model53.7%
The market56.6%

What the model saw

Strong prediction - high confidence

How the two sides compared

Arouca badge

Arouca

Attack26
Defence77
Form44
Moreirense badge

Moreirense

Attack70
Defence40
Form40

Attack, defence and form are the pre-game snapshot from the last five matches, exactly as the model saw them.

Every market we called

1 of 5 right

Double Chance

X2 (Draw or Away)

Edge +17.5%Miss
Our model75.3%
The market57.8%
Edge
+17.5
Odds
1.73

Draw No Bet

Moreirense (DNB)

Edge +12.6%Miss
Our model69.7%
The market57.1%
Edge
+12.6
Odds
1.75

Goals Over/Under

Under 2.5 Goals

Miss
Our model53.7%
The market56.6%
Edge
-2.9
Odds
1.70

Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score: No

Edge +1.1%Correct
Our model52.8%
The market51.7%
Edge
+1.1
Odds
1.80

Match Winner

Moreirense Win

Edge +20.8%Miss
Our model49.4%
The market28.6%
Edge
+20.8
Odds
3.50

Correct Score

Score: 0-1

Miss
Our model13.5%
The market15.5%
Edge
-2.0
Odds
6.46

Odds are the best price available when the prediction was published. Edge is model probability minus bookmaker implied probability.

Most likely scorelines

Model distribution before kick-off. The actual result is highlighted.

0-1

13.5%

0-2

13.3%

1-1

11.7%

We called 1 of 5 markets right here.
This weekend's fixtures are already live.

Every pick published before kick-off, with the reasoning and the confidence shown. Wins and losses both stay on the record.