Primeira Liga badgePrimeira Liga · 2 May 2026AI PICK

Arouca badgeAroucavsSanta Clara badgeSanta Clara

2 - 2
Miss

Full time · 2 of 4 right · every pick published before kick-off

Model said
61.2%
Market said
50.0%
Edge
+11.2 pts
Best odds
2.00

The call, locked before kick-off

Miss

Arouca Win

Match Winner · best price 2.00

MediumEdge +11.2%
Our model61.2%
The market50.0%

The market underrated this by 11.2 percentage points. That gap is the only reason we published the pick.

What the model saw

Moderate prediction - medium confidence

How the two sides compared

Arouca badge

Arouca

Attack55
Defence48
Form47
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Santa Clara

Attack42
Defence46
Form36

Attack, defence and form are the pre-game snapshot from the last five matches, exactly as the model saw them.

Every market we called

2 of 4 right

Double Chance

12 (Home or Away)

Edge +11.5%Miss
Our model85.0%
The market73.5%
Edge
+11.5
Odds
1.36

Match Winner

Arouca Win

Edge +11.2%Miss
Our model61.2%
The market50.0%
Edge
+11.2
Odds
2.00

Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score: Yes

Edge +7.5%Correct
Our model57.5%
The market50.0%
Edge
+7.5
Odds
2.00

Draw No Bet

Arouca (DNB)

Void
Our model56.0%
The market57.1%
Edge
-1.1
Odds
1.75

Goals Over/Under

Over 2.5 Goals

Edge +7.9%Correct
Our model50.5%
The market42.6%
Edge
+7.9
Odds
2.35

Odds are the best price available when the prediction was published. Edge is model probability minus bookmaker implied probability.

We called 2 of 4 markets right here.
This weekend's fixtures are already live.

Every pick published before kick-off, with the reasoning and the confidence shown. Wins and losses both stay on the record.