First League · 16 May 2026AI PICK

Arsenal TulavsRodina Moskva

1 - 4

Correct

Full time · 2 of 2 right · every pick published before kick-off

Model said: 57.8%
Market said: 49.5%
Edge: +8.3 pts
Best odds: 2.02

The call, locked before kick-off

Correct

Both Teams To Score: Yes

Both Teams To Score · best price 2.02

MediumEdge +8.3%

Our model57.8%

The market49.5%

The market underrated this by 8.3 percentage points. That gap is the only reason we published the pick.

What the model saw

Close match - low confidence

How the two sides compared

Arsenal Tula

Attack40

Defence48

Form29

Rodina Moskva

Attack81

Defence79

Form76

Attack, defence and form are the pre-game snapshot from the last five matches, exactly as the model saw them.

Every market we called

2 of 2 right

Double Chance

12 (Home or Away)

Edge +8.7%

Our model85.0%

The market76.3%

Edge: +8.7
Odds: 1.31

Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score: Yes

Edge +8.3%Correct

Our model57.8%

The market49.5%

Edge: +8.3
Odds: 2.02

Goals Over/Under

Over 2.5 Goals

Edge +12.5%Correct

Our model55.1%

The market42.6%

Edge: +12.5
Odds: 2.35

Draw No Bet

Rodina Moskva (DNB)

Our model45.0%

The market57.1%

Edge: -12.1
Odds: 1.75

Match Winner

Rodina Moskva Win

Our model37.3%

The market46.9%

Edge: -9.6
Odds: 2.13

Correct Score

Score: 0-1

Edge +1.6%

Our model12.0%

The market10.4%

Edge: +1.6
Odds: 9.57

Odds are the best price available when the prediction was published. Edge is model probability minus bookmaker implied probability.

Most likely scorelines

Model distribution before kick-off. The actual result is highlighted.

0-1

12.0%

0-2

9.9%

1-2

9.9%

We called 2 of 2 markets right here.
This weekend's fixtures are already live.

Every pick published before kick-off, with the reasoning and the confidence shown. Wins and losses both stay on the record.

Get the app See the full track record