EFL Trophy badgeEFL Trophy · 18 August 2026AI PICK

Barnet badgeBarnetvsArsenal U21 badgeArsenal U21

5 - 1
Miss

Full time · 3 of 4 right · every pick published before kick-off

Model said
53.7%
Market said
40.0%
Edge
+13.7 pts
Best odds
2.50

The call, locked before kick-off

Miss

Under 2.5 Goals

Goals Over/Under · best price 2.50

LowEdge +13.7%
Our model53.7%
The market40.0%

The market underrated this by 13.7 percentage points. That gap is the only reason we published the pick.

What the model saw

Close match - low confidence

How the two sides compared

Barnet badge

Barnet

Attack42
Defence60
Form42
Arsenal U21 badge

Arsenal U21

Attack50
Defence50
Form50

Attack, defence and form are the pre-game snapshot from the last five matches, exactly as the model saw them.

Every market we called

3 of 4 right

Double Chance

1X (Home or Draw)

Our model72.1%
The market90.1%
Edge
-18.0
Odds
1.11

Draw No Bet

Barnet (DNB)

Correct
Our model55.4%
The market57.1%
Edge
-1.7
Odds
1.75

Goals Over/Under

Under 2.5 Goals

Edge +13.7%Miss
Our model53.7%
The market40.0%
Edge
+13.7
Odds
2.50

Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score: Yes

Correct
Our model52.8%
The market63.7%
Edge
-10.9
Odds
1.57

Match Winner

Barnet Win

Correct
Our model42.3%
The market66.7%
Edge
-24.4
Odds
1.50

Correct Score

Score: 1-0

Miss
Our model8.8%
The market10.1%
Edge
-1.3
Odds
9.90

Odds are the best price available when the prediction was published. Edge is model probability minus bookmaker implied probability.

Most likely scorelines

Model distribution before kick-off. The actual result is highlighted.

1-0

8.8%

1-1

14.1%

0-0

9.1%

We called 3 of 4 markets right here.
This weekend's fixtures are already live.

Every pick published before kick-off, with the reasoning and the confidence shown. Wins and losses both stay on the record.