Division Intermedia · 21 May 2026AI PICK

Benjamín AcevalvsSportivo Carapeguá

2 - 0

Miss

Full time · 3 of 5 right, 1 close · every pick published before kick-off

Model said: 62.4%
Market said: 54.1%
Edge: +8.3 pts
Best odds: 1.85

The call, locked before kick-off

Miss

Both Teams To Score: Yes

Both Teams To Score · best price 1.85

MediumEdge +8.3%

Our model62.4%

The market54.1%

The market underrated this by 8.3 percentage points. That gap is the only reason we published the pick.

What the model saw

Moderate prediction - medium confidence

How the two sides compared

Benjamín Aceval

Attack62

Defence100

Form67

Sportivo Carapeguá

Attack65

Defence29

Form56

Attack, defence and form are the pre-game snapshot from the last five matches, exactly as the model saw them.

Every market we called

3 of 5 right, 1 close

Double Chance

12 (Home or Away)

Edge +6.9%Correct

Our model85.0%

The market78.1%

Edge: +6.9
Odds: 1.28

Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score: Yes

Edge +8.3%Miss

Our model62.4%

The market54.1%

Edge: +8.3
Odds: 1.85

Goals Over/Under

Over 2.5 Goals

Edge +17.1%Close

Our model59.7%

The market42.6%

Edge: +17.1
Odds: 2.35

Match Winner

Benjamín Aceval Win

Edge +7.5%Correct

Our model55.1%

The market47.6%

Edge: +7.5
Odds: 2.10

Draw No Bet

Benjamín Aceval (DNB)

Correct

Our model51.0%

The market57.1%

Edge: -6.1
Odds: 1.75

Correct Score

Score: 1-1

Edge +1.2%Miss

Our model9.2%

The market8.0%

Edge: +1.2
Odds: 12.51

Odds are the best price available when the prediction was published. Edge is model probability minus bookmaker implied probability.

Most likely scorelines

Model distribution before kick-off. The actual result is highlighted.

1-1

9.2%

1-0

8.8%

2-1

8.6%

We called 3 of 5 markets right here.
This weekend's fixtures are already live.

Every pick published before kick-off, with the reasoning and the confidence shown. Wins and losses both stay on the record.

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