Bournemouthvs
Manchester City
1 - 1Full time · 1 of 4 right, 1 close · every pick published before kick-off
- Model said
- 70.7%
- Market said
- 69.4%
- Edge
- +1.3 pts
- Best odds
- 1.44
The call, locked before kick-off
CloseOver 2.5 Goals
Goals Over/Under · best price 1.44
The market underrated this by 1.3 percentage points. That gap is the only reason we published the pick.
What the model saw
Close match - low confidence
How the two sides compared
Bournemouth
Manchester City
Attack, defence and form are the pre-game snapshot from the last five matches, exactly as the model saw them.
Every market we called
1 of 4 right, 1 close
Double Chance
12 (Home or Away)
- Edge
- +3.0
- Odds
- 1.22
Goals Over/Under
Over 2.5 Goals
- Edge
- +1.3
- Odds
- 1.44
Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score: Yes
- Edge
- +0.1
- Odds
- 1.50
Match Winner
Bournemouth Win
- Edge
- +24.4
- Odds
- 4.33
Draw No Bet
Bournemouth (DNB)
- Edge
- -11.1
- Odds
- 1.75
Correct Score
Score: 1-2
- Edge
- +1.1
- Odds
- 13.18
Odds are the best price available when the prediction was published. Edge is model probability minus bookmaker implied probability.
Most likely scorelines
Model distribution before kick-off. The actual result is highlighted.
1-2
8.7%
1-1
7.1% · actual
2-2
7.0%
We called 1 of 4 markets right here.
This weekend's fixtures are already live.
Every pick published before kick-off, with the reasoning and the confidence shown. Wins and losses both stay on the record.