Copa Uruguay badgeCopa Uruguay · 3 September 2026AI PICK

CA River Plate badgeCA River PlatevsClub Nacional badgeClub Nacional

2 - 3
Miss

Full time · 2 of 4 right · every pick published before kick-off

Model said
54.6%
Market said
52.6%
Edge
+2.0 pts
Best odds
1.90

The call, locked before kick-off

Miss

Both Teams To Score: No

Both Teams To Score · best price 1.90

LowEdge +2.0%
Our model54.6%
The market52.6%

The market underrated this by 2.0 percentage points. That gap is the only reason we published the pick.

What the model saw

Moderate prediction - medium confidence

How the two sides compared

CA River Plate badge

CA River Plate

Attack51
Defence66
Form56
Club Nacional badge

Club Nacional

Attack27
Defence75
Form53

Attack, defence and form are the pre-game snapshot from the last five matches, exactly as the model saw them.

Every market we called

2 of 4 right

Double Chance

12 (Home or Away)

Edge +5.0%
Our model83.1%
The market78.1%
Edge
+5.0
Odds
1.28

Draw No Bet

Club Nacional (DNB)

Correct
Our model56.9%
The market64.5%
Edge
-7.6
Odds
1.55

Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score: No

Edge +2.0%Miss
Our model54.6%
The market52.6%
Edge
+2.0
Odds
1.90

Goals Over/Under

Under 2.5 Goals

Miss
Our model54.6%
The market57.5%
Edge
-2.9
Odds
1.74

Match Winner

Club Nacional Win

Correct
Our model47.3%
The market50.0%
Edge
-2.7
Odds
2.00

Correct Score

Score: 1-0

Miss
Our model12.5%
The market14.4%
Edge
-1.9
Odds
6.94

Odds are the best price available when the prediction was published. Edge is model probability minus bookmaker implied probability.

Most likely scorelines

Model distribution before kick-off. The actual result is highlighted.

1-0

12.5%

1-1

12.6%

2-0

11.9%

We called 2 of 4 markets right here.
This weekend's fixtures are already live.

Every pick published before kick-off, with the reasoning and the confidence shown. Wins and losses both stay on the record.