Segunda División badgeSegunda División · 11 July 2026AI PICK

CA River Plate badgeCA River PlatevsPlaza Colonia badgePlaza Colonia

3 - 2
Miss

Full time · 4 of 5 right · every pick published before kick-off

Model said
55.9%
Market said
52.6%
Edge
+3.3 pts
Best odds
1.90

The call, locked before kick-off

Miss

Under 2.5 Goals

Goals Over/Under · best price 1.90

MediumEdge +3.3%
Our model55.9%
The market52.6%

The market underrated this by 3.3 percentage points. That gap is the only reason we published the pick.

What the model saw

Close match - low confidence

How the two sides compared

CA River Plate badge

CA River Plate

Attack58
Defence33
Form40
Plaza Colonia badge

Plaza Colonia

Attack49
Defence87
Form56

Attack, defence and form are the pre-game snapshot from the last five matches, exactly as the model saw them.

Every market we called

4 of 5 right

Double Chance

1X (Home or Draw)

Edge +2.8%Correct
Our model74.2%
The market71.4%
Edge
+2.8
Odds
1.40

Draw No Bet

CA River Plate (DNB)

Edge +3.1%Correct
Our model60.2%
The market57.1%
Edge
+3.1
Odds
1.75

Goals Over/Under

Under 2.5 Goals

Edge +3.3%Miss
Our model55.9%
The market52.6%
Edge
+3.3
Odds
1.90

Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score: Yes

Correct
Our model53.0%
The market54.1%
Edge
-1.1
Odds
1.85

Match Winner

CA River Plate Win

Correct
Our model41.1%
The market50.0%
Edge
-8.9
Odds
2.00

Correct Score

Score: 1-0

Miss
Our model9.6%
The market11.0%
Edge
-1.4
Odds
9.10

Odds are the best price available when the prediction was published. Edge is model probability minus bookmaker implied probability.

Most likely scorelines

Model distribution before kick-off. The actual result is highlighted.

1-0

9.6%

1-1

13.9%

2-1

9.2%

We called 4 of 5 markets right here.
This weekend's fixtures are already live.

Every pick published before kick-off, with the reasoning and the confidence shown. Wins and losses both stay on the record.