Serie D · 12 July 2026AI PICK
Capital Brasiliavs
Nacional AM
1 - 0Full time · 2 of 4 right · every pick published before kick-off
- Model said
- 55.9%
- Market said
- 40.0%
- Edge
- +15.9 pts
- Best odds
- 2.50
The call, locked before kick-off
MissOver 2.5 Goals
Goals Over/Under · best price 2.50
The market underrated this by 15.9 percentage points. That gap is the only reason we published the pick.
What the model saw
Close match - low confidence
How the two sides compared
Capital Brasilia
Nacional AM
Attack, defence and form are the pre-game snapshot from the last five matches, exactly as the model saw them.
Every market we called
2 of 4 right
Double Chance
1X (Home or Draw)
- Edge
- -11.3
- Odds
- 1.17
Draw No Bet
Capital Brasilia (DNB)
- Edge
- +3.1
- Odds
- 1.75
Goals Over/Under
Over 2.5 Goals
- Edge
- +15.9
- Odds
- 2.50
Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score: Yes
- Edge
- +8.6
- Odds
- 2.25
Match Winner
Capital Brasilia Win
- Edge
- -12.8
- Odds
- 1.83
Correct Score
Score: 2-1
- Edge
- -1.3
- Odds
- 9.48
Odds are the best price available when the prediction was published. Edge is model probability minus bookmaker implied probability.
Most likely scorelines
Model distribution before kick-off. The actual result is highlighted.
2-1
9.2%
1-1
13.0%
1-2
7.5%
We called 2 of 4 markets right here.
This weekend's fixtures are already live.
Every pick published before kick-off, with the reasoning and the confidence shown. Wins and losses both stay on the record.