Primera División - Apertura badgePrimera División - Apertura · 9 May 2026AI PICK

Central Espanol badgeCentral EspanolvsRacing Montevideo badgeRacing Montevideo

2 - 0
Miss

Full time · 1 of 3 right, 1 close · every pick published before kick-off

Model said
61.4%
Market said
50.0%
Edge
+11.4 pts
Best odds
2.00

The call, locked before kick-off

Miss

Both Teams To Score: Yes

Both Teams To Score · best price 2.00

MediumEdge +11.4%
Our model61.4%
The market50.0%

The market underrated this by 11.4 percentage points. That gap is the only reason we published the pick.

What the model saw

Moderate prediction - medium confidence

How the two sides compared

Central Espanol badge

Central Espanol

Attack56
Defence40
Form49
Racing Montevideo badge

Racing Montevideo

Attack61
Defence68
Form69

Attack, defence and form are the pre-game snapshot from the last five matches, exactly as the model saw them.

Every market we called

1 of 3 right, 1 close

Double Chance

12 (Home or Away)

Edge +9.8%Correct
Our model85.0%
The market75.2%
Edge
+9.8
Odds
1.33

Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score: Yes

Edge +11.4%Miss
Our model61.4%
The market50.0%
Edge
+11.4
Odds
2.00

Goals Over/Under

Over 2.5 Goals

Edge +13.1%Close
Our model57.5%
The market44.4%
Edge
+13.1
Odds
2.25

Draw No Bet

Central Espanol (DNB)

Our model50.0%
The market57.1%
Edge
-7.1
Odds
1.75

Match Winner

Central Espanol Win

Our model39.5%
The market50.0%
Edge
-10.5
Odds
2.00

Correct Score

Score: 1-1

Edge +1.2%Miss
Our model9.5%
The market8.3%
Edge
+1.2
Odds
12.08

Odds are the best price available when the prediction was published. Edge is model probability minus bookmaker implied probability.

Most likely scorelines

Model distribution before kick-off. The actual result is highlighted.

1-1

9.5%

0-1

9.1%

1-0

9.1%

We called 1 of 3 markets right here.
This weekend's fixtures are already live.

Every pick published before kick-off, with the reasoning and the confidence shown. Wins and losses both stay on the record.