Primera División - Apertura badgePrimera División - Apertura · 11 May 2026AI PICK

Cerro Largo badgeCerro LargovsPenarol badgePenarol

2 - 3
Miss

Full time · 2 of 5 right · every pick published before kick-off

We called
Under 2.5 Goals
Model confidence
60.4%
Markets called
2 of 5 right
Final score
2 - 3

The call, locked before kick-off

Miss

Under 2.5 Goals

Goals Over/Under · best price 1.57

MediumEdge -3.3%
Our model60.4%
The market63.7%

What the model saw

Close match - low confidence

How the two sides compared

Cerro Largo badge

Cerro Largo

Attack40
Defence47
Form38
Penarol badge

Penarol

Attack48
Defence55
Form49

Attack, defence and form are the pre-game snapshot from the last five matches, exactly as the model saw them.

Every market we called

2 of 5 right

Double Chance

12 (Home or Away)

Edge +8.1%Correct
Our model85.0%
The market76.9%
Edge
+8.1
Odds
1.30

Goals Over/Under

Under 2.5 Goals

Miss
Our model60.4%
The market63.7%
Edge
-3.3
Odds
1.57

Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score: Yes

Edge +8.3%Correct
Our model53.8%
The market45.5%
Edge
+8.3
Odds
2.20

Draw No Bet

Cerro Largo (DNB)

Miss
Our model48.0%
The market57.1%
Edge
-9.1
Odds
1.75

Match Winner

Cerro Largo Win

Miss
Our model43.7%
The market50.0%
Edge
-6.3
Odds
2.00

Correct Score

Score: 0-1

Edge +1.8%
Our model14.0%
The market12.2%
Edge
+1.8
Odds
8.20

Odds are the best price available when the prediction was published. Edge is model probability minus bookmaker implied probability.

Most likely scorelines

Model distribution before kick-off. The actual result is highlighted.

0-1

14.0%

1-0

13.0%

1-1

11.2%

We called 2 of 5 markets right here.
This weekend's fixtures are already live.

Every pick published before kick-off, with the reasoning and the confidence shown. Wins and losses both stay on the record.