Serie D · 30 May 2026AI PICK

CFRJ / MaricávsNova Iguaçu

1 - 0

Miss

Full time · 1 of 2 right · every pick published before kick-off

Model said: 52.6%
Market said: 45.5%
Edge: +7.1 pts
Best odds: 2.20

The call, locked before kick-off

Miss

Both Teams To Score: Yes

Both Teams To Score · best price 2.20

LowEdge +7.1%

Our model52.6%

The market45.5%

The market underrated this by 7.1 percentage points. That gap is the only reason we published the pick.

What the model saw

Close match - low confidence

How the two sides compared

CFRJ / Maricá

Attack44

Defence35

Form40

Nova Iguaçu

Attack50

Defence57

Form43

Attack, defence and form are the pre-game snapshot from the last five matches, exactly as the model saw them.

Every market we called

1 of 2 right

Double Chance

12 (Home or Away)

Edge +9.8%Correct

Our model85.0%

The market75.2%

Edge: +9.8
Odds: 1.33

Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score: Yes

Edge +7.1%Miss

Our model52.6%

The market45.5%

Edge: +7.1
Odds: 2.20

Draw No Bet

CFRJ / Maricá (DNB)

Our model49.0%

The market57.1%

Edge: -8.1
Odds: 1.75

Match Winner

CFRJ / Maricá Win

Our model39.4%

The market43.5%

Edge: -4.1
Odds: 2.30

Correct Score

Score: 0-1

Edge +1.9%

Our model14.2%

The market12.3%

Edge: +1.9
Odds: 8.10

Odds are the best price available when the prediction was published. Edge is model probability minus bookmaker implied probability.

Most likely scorelines

Model distribution before kick-off. The actual result is highlighted.

0-1

14.2%

1-0

14.2% · actual

1-1

11.4%

We called 1 of 2 markets right here.
This weekend's fixtures are already live.

Every pick published before kick-off, with the reasoning and the confidence shown. Wins and losses both stay on the record.

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