Primera División · 2 August 2026AI PICK
Club Nacionalvs
Progreso
2 - 1Full time · 3 of 5 right, 1 close · every pick published before kick-off
- Model said
- 55.5%
- Market said
- 51.3%
- Edge
- +4.2 pts
- Best odds
- 1.95
The call, locked before kick-off
CloseUnder 2.5 Goals
Goals Over/Under · best price 1.95
The market underrated this by 4.2 percentage points. That gap is the only reason we published the pick.
What the model saw
Moderate prediction - medium confidence
How the two sides compared
Club Nacional
Progreso
Attack, defence and form are the pre-game snapshot from the last five matches, exactly as the model saw them.
Every market we called
3 of 5 right, 1 close
Double Chance
1X (Home or Draw)
- Edge
- -14.0
- Odds
- 1.12
Draw No Bet
Club Nacional (DNB)
- Edge
- -1.0
- Odds
- 1.75
Goals Over/Under
Under 2.5 Goals
- Edge
- +4.2
- Odds
- 1.95
Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score: No
- Edge
- -7.5
- Odds
- 1.62
Match Winner
Club Nacional Win
- Edge
- -17.5
- Odds
- 1.42
Correct Score
Score: 1-0
- Edge
- -2.0
- Odds
- 6.68
Odds are the best price available when the prediction was published. Edge is model probability minus bookmaker implied probability.
Most likely scorelines
Model distribution before kick-off. The actual result is highlighted.
1-0
13.0%
1-1
13.1%
2-0
11.6%
We called 3 of 5 markets right here.
This weekend's fixtures are already live.
Every pick published before kick-off, with the reasoning and the confidence shown. Wins and losses both stay on the record.