Primera División · 23 August 2026AI PICK
Club Nacionalvs
Progreso
1 - 0Full time · 5 of 5 right · every pick published before kick-off
- Model said
- 58.4%
- Market said
- 51.3%
- Edge
- +7.1 pts
- Best odds
- 1.95
The call, locked before kick-off
CorrectUnder 2.5 Goals
Goals Over/Under · best price 1.95
The market underrated this by 7.1 percentage points. That gap is the only reason we published the pick.
What the model saw
Close match - low confidence
How the two sides compared
Club Nacional
Progreso
Attack, defence and form are the pre-game snapshot from the last five matches, exactly as the model saw them.
Every market we called
5 of 5 right
Double Chance
1X (Home or Draw)
- Edge
- -12.9
- Odds
- 1.04
Draw No Bet
Club Nacional (DNB)
- Edge
- -7.0
- Odds
- 1.22
Goals Over/Under
Under 2.5 Goals
- Edge
- +7.1
- Odds
- 1.95
Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score: No
- Edge
- -5.1
- Odds
- 1.73
Match Winner
Club Nacional Win
- Edge
- -23.0
- Odds
- 1.37
Correct Score
Score: 1-0
- Edge
- -2.8
- Odds
- 4.75
Odds are the best price available when the prediction was published. Edge is model probability minus bookmaker implied probability.
Most likely scorelines
Model distribution before kick-off. The actual result is highlighted.
1-0
18.3% · actual
0-0
18.1%
1-1
13.5%
We called 5 of 5 markets right here.
This weekend's fixtures are already live.
Every pick published before kick-off, with the reasoning and the confidence shown. Wins and losses both stay on the record.