Primera División badgePrimera División · 16 August 2026AI PICK

Cobresal badgeCobresalvsConcepción badgeConcepción

0 - 2
Correct

Full time · 4 of 5 right · every pick published before kick-off

Model said
53.7%
Market said
48.8%
Edge
+4.9 pts
Best odds
2.00

The call, locked before kick-off

Correct

Under 2.5 Goals

Goals Over/Under · best price 2.00

LowEdge +4.9%
Our model53.7%
The market48.8%

The market underrated this by 4.9 percentage points. That gap is the only reason we published the pick.

What the model saw

Close match - low confidence

How the two sides compared

Cobresal badge

Cobresal

Attack33
Defence45
Form27
Concepción badge

Concepción

Attack56
Defence63
Form62

Attack, defence and form are the pre-game snapshot from the last five matches, exactly as the model saw them.

Every market we called

4 of 5 right

Double Chance

X2 (Draw or Away)

Edge +5.4%Correct
Our model72.1%
The market66.7%
Edge
+5.4
Odds
1.50

Draw No Bet

Concepción (DNB)

Edge +4.9%Correct
Our model62.0%
The market57.1%
Edge
+4.9
Odds
1.75

Goals Over/Under

Under 2.5 Goals

Edge +4.9%Correct
Our model53.7%
The market48.8%
Edge
+4.9
Odds
2.00

Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score: Yes

Miss
Our model52.8%
The market59.5%
Edge
-6.7
Odds
1.62

Match Winner

Concepción Win

Edge +3.8%Correct
Our model42.3%
The market38.5%
Edge
+3.8
Odds
2.60

Correct Score

Score: 0-1

Close
Our model10.4%
The market11.9%
Edge
-1.5
Odds
8.40

Odds are the best price available when the prediction was published. Edge is model probability minus bookmaker implied probability.

Most likely scorelines

Model distribution before kick-off. The actual result is highlighted.

0-1

10.4%

1-1

13.4%

0-2

9.5% · actual

We called 4 of 5 markets right here.
This weekend's fixtures are already live.

Every pick published before kick-off, with the reasoning and the confidence shown. Wins and losses both stay on the record.