Primera División · 10 May 2026AI PICK

Comerciantes UnidosvsFBC Melgar

1 - 1

Correct

Full time · 1 of 4 right, 1 close · every pick published before kick-off

Model said: 60.2%
Market said: 54.6%
Edge: +5.6 pts
Best odds: 1.83

The call, locked before kick-off

Correct

Both Teams To Score: Yes

Both Teams To Score · best price 1.83

MediumEdge +5.6%

Our model60.2%

The market54.6%

The market underrated this by 5.6 percentage points. That gap is the only reason we published the pick.

What the model saw

Close match - low confidence

How the two sides compared

Comerciantes Unidos

Attack44

Defence57

Form44

FBC Melgar

Attack58

Defence56

Form55

Attack, defence and form are the pre-game snapshot from the last five matches, exactly as the model saw them.

Every market we called

1 of 4 right, 1 close

Double Chance

12 (Home or Away)

Edge +9.8%Miss

Our model85.0%

The market75.2%

Edge: +9.8
Odds: 1.33

Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score: Yes

Edge +5.6%Correct

Our model60.2%

The market54.6%

Edge: +5.6
Odds: 1.83

Goals Over/Under

Over 2.5 Goals

Edge +7.6%Close

Our model55.2%

The market47.6%

Edge: +7.6
Odds: 2.10

Match Winner

Comerciantes Unidos Win

Miss

Our model47.9%

The market50.0%

Edge: -2.1
Odds: 2.00

Draw No Bet

Comerciantes Unidos (DNB)

Void

Our model47.0%

The market57.1%

Edge: -10.1
Odds: 1.75

Correct Score

Score: 0-1

Edge +1.4%

Our model10.5%

The market9.1%

Edge: +1.4
Odds: 10.93

Odds are the best price available when the prediction was published. Edge is model probability minus bookmaker implied probability.

Most likely scorelines

Model distribution before kick-off. The actual result is highlighted.

0-1

10.5%

1-1

9.7% · actual

1-2

9.2%

We called 1 of 4 markets right here.
This weekend's fixtures are already live.

Every pick published before kick-off, with the reasoning and the confidence shown. Wins and losses both stay on the record.

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