First NL badgeFirst NL · 23 August 2026AI PICK

Croatia Zmijavci badgeCroatia ZmijavcivsHrvace badgeHrvace

3 - 0
Correct

Full time · 3 of 4 right · every pick published before kick-off

Model said
58.4%
Market said
45.7%
Edge
+12.7 pts
Best odds
2.19

The call, locked before kick-off

Correct

Over 2.5 Goals

Goals Over/Under · best price 2.19

MediumEdge +12.7%
Our model58.4%
The market45.7%

The market underrated this by 12.7 percentage points. That gap is the only reason we published the pick.

What the model saw

Close match - low confidence

Every market we called

3 of 4 right

Double Chance

1X (Home or Draw)

Our model68.2%
The market82.0%
Edge
-13.8
Odds
1.22

Goals Over/Under

Over 2.5 Goals

Edge +12.7%Correct
Our model58.4%
The market45.7%
Edge
+12.7
Odds
2.19

Draw No Bet

Croatia Zmijavci (DNB)

Correct
Our model57.0%
The market76.9%
Edge
-19.9
Odds
1.30

Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score: Yes

Edge +1.8%Miss
Our model54.2%
The market52.4%
Edge
+1.8
Odds
1.91

Match Winner

Croatia Zmijavci Win

Correct
Our model42.1%
The market50.3%
Edge
-8.2
Odds
1.99

Correct Score

Score: 2-1

Close
Our model8.4%
The market9.7%
Edge
-1.3
Odds
10.34

Odds are the best price available when the prediction was published. Edge is model probability minus bookmaker implied probability.

Most likely scorelines

Model distribution before kick-off. The actual result is highlighted.

2-1

8.4%

1-1

8.6%

2-2

7.1%

We called 3 of 4 markets right here.
This weekend's fixtures are already live.

Every pick published before kick-off, with the reasoning and the confidence shown. Wins and losses both stay on the record.