Serie A badgeSerie A · 6 September 2026AI PICK

Cruzeiro badgeCruzeirovsAtletico Paranaense badgeAtletico Paranaense

3 - 1
Correct

Full time · 4 of 4 right · every pick published before kick-off

Model said
55.2%
Market said
47.3%
Edge
+7.9 pts
Best odds
2.02

The call, locked before kick-off

Correct

Both Teams To Score: Yes

Both Teams To Score · best price 2.02

MediumEdge +7.9%
Our model55.2%
The market47.3%

The market underrated this by 7.9 percentage points. That gap is the only reason we published the pick.

What the model saw

Close match - low confidence

How the two sides compared

Cruzeiro badge

Cruzeiro

Attack50
Defence58
Form53
Atletico Paranaense badge

Atletico Paranaense

Attack54
Defence58
Form60

Attack, defence and form are the pre-game snapshot from the last five matches, exactly as the model saw them.

Every market we called

4 of 4 right

Double Chance

1X (Home or Draw)

Our model68.7%
The market81.3%
Edge
-12.6
Odds
1.23

Draw No Bet

Cruzeiro (DNB)

Correct
Our model58.1%
The market69.4%
Edge
-11.3
Odds
1.44

Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score: Yes

Edge +7.9%Correct
Our model55.2%
The market47.3%
Edge
+7.9
Odds
2.02

Goals Over/Under

Over 2.5 Goals

Edge +12.3%Correct
Our model54.6%
The market42.3%
Edge
+12.3
Odds
2.31

Match Winner

Cruzeiro Win

Correct
Our model43.6%
The market52.1%
Edge
-8.5
Odds
1.92

Correct Score

Score: 2-1

Close
Our model8.7%
The market10.0%
Edge
-1.3
Odds
10.02

Odds are the best price available when the prediction was published. Edge is model probability minus bookmaker implied probability.

Most likely scorelines

Model distribution before kick-off. The actual result is highlighted.

2-1

8.7%

1-1

13.1%

1-2

8.1%

We called 4 of 4 markets right here.
This weekend's fixtures are already live.

Every pick published before kick-off, with the reasoning and the confidence shown. Wins and losses both stay on the record.