First League badgeFirst League · 3 May 2026AI PICK

CSKA Sofia badgeCSKA SofiavsLudogorets badgeLudogorets

1 - 0
Miss

Full time · 3 of 5 right · every pick published before kick-off

Model said
61.4%
Market said
54.6%
Edge
+6.8 pts
Best odds
1.83

The call, locked before kick-off

Miss

Both Teams To Score: Yes

Both Teams To Score · best price 1.83

MediumEdge +6.8%
Our model61.4%
The market54.6%

The market underrated this by 6.8 percentage points. That gap is the only reason we published the pick.

What the model saw

Moderate prediction - medium confidence

How the two sides compared

CSKA Sofia badge

CSKA Sofia

Attack60
Defence80
Form71
Ludogorets badge

Ludogorets

Attack66
Defence67
Form53

Attack, defence and form are the pre-game snapshot from the last five matches, exactly as the model saw them.

Every market we called

3 of 5 right

Double Chance

12 (Home or Away)

Edge +11.5%Correct
Our model85.0%
The market73.5%
Edge
+11.5
Odds
1.36

Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score: Yes

Edge +6.8%Miss
Our model61.4%
The market54.6%
Edge
+6.8
Odds
1.83

Goals Over/Under

Over 2.5 Goals

Edge +11.0%Miss
Our model57.5%
The market46.5%
Edge
+11.0
Odds
2.15

Draw No Bet

CSKA Sofia (DNB)

Correct
Our model50.0%
The market57.1%
Edge
-7.1
Odds
1.75

Match Winner

CSKA Sofia Win

Correct
Our model45.7%
The market50.0%
Edge
-4.3
Odds
2.00

Odds are the best price available when the prediction was published. Edge is model probability minus bookmaker implied probability.

We called 3 of 5 markets right here.
This weekend's fixtures are already live.

Every pick published before kick-off, with the reasoning and the confidence shown. Wins and losses both stay on the record.