Primera División - Apertura badgePrimera División - Apertura · 5 July 2026AI PICK

Danubio badgeDanubiovsJuventud badgeJuventud

1 - 1
Close

Full time · 1 of 3 right, 1 close · every pick published before kick-off

Model said
53.1%
Market said
43.7%
Edge
+9.4 pts
Best odds
2.19

The call, locked before kick-off

Close

Over 2.5 Goals

Goals Over/Under · best price 2.19

LowEdge +9.4%
Our model53.1%
The market43.7%

The market underrated this by 9.4 percentage points. That gap is the only reason we published the pick.

What the model saw

Close match - low confidence

How the two sides compared

Danubio badge

Danubio

Attack44
Defence41
Form29
Juventud badge

Juventud

Attack65
Defence43
Form47

Attack, defence and form are the pre-game snapshot from the last five matches, exactly as the model saw them.

Every market we called

1 of 3 right, 1 close

Double Chance

X2 (Draw or Away)

Edge +4.9%
Our model71.6%
The market66.7%
Edge
+4.9
Odds
1.50

Draw No Bet

Juventud (DNB)

Edge +2.7%Void
Our model59.8%
The market57.1%
Edge
+2.7
Odds
1.75

Goals Over/Under

Over 2.5 Goals

Edge +9.4%Close
Our model53.1%
The market43.7%
Edge
+9.4
Odds
2.19

Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score: Yes

Edge +0.4%Correct
Our model52.0%
The market51.6%
Edge
+0.4
Odds
1.87

Match Winner

Juventud Win

Edge +1.4%Miss
Our model41.1%
The market39.7%
Edge
+1.4
Odds
2.52

Correct Score

Score: 1-2

Miss
Our model9.4%
The market10.8%
Edge
-1.4
Odds
9.29

Odds are the best price available when the prediction was published. Edge is model probability minus bookmaker implied probability.

Most likely scorelines

Model distribution before kick-off. The actual result is highlighted.

1-2

9.4%

1-1

13.2% · actual

0-1

8.2%

We called 1 of 3 markets right here.
This weekend's fixtures are already live.

Every pick published before kick-off, with the reasoning and the confidence shown. Wins and losses both stay on the record.