Primera División - Apertura badgePrimera División - Apertura · 7 June 2026AI PICK

Defensor Sporting badgeDefensor SportingvsBoston River badgeBoston River

1 - 1
Correct

Full time · 1 of 2 right · every pick published before kick-off

Model said
70.4%
Market said
59.9%
Edge
+10.5 pts
Best odds
1.67

The call, locked before kick-off

Correct

Under 2.5 Goals

Goals Over/Under · best price 1.67

High confidenceEdge +10.5%
Our model70.4%
The market59.9%

The market underrated this by 10.5 percentage points. That gap is the only reason we published the pick.

What the model saw

Close match - low confidence

How the two sides compared

Defensor Sporting badge

Defensor Sporting

Attack27
Defence68
Form33
Boston River badge

Boston River

Attack48
Defence33
Form33

Attack, defence and form are the pre-game snapshot from the last five matches, exactly as the model saw them.

Every market we called

1 of 2 right

Double Chance

12 (Home or Away)

Edge +11.5%
Our model85.0%
The market73.5%
Edge
+11.5
Odds
1.36

Goals Over/Under

Under 2.5 Goals

Edge +10.5%Correct
Our model70.4%
The market59.9%
Edge
+10.5
Odds
1.67

Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score: No

Edge +2.3%
Our model56.9%
The market54.6%
Edge
+2.3
Odds
1.83

Match Winner

Boston River Win

Edge +17.7%Miss
Our model48.5%
The market30.8%
Edge
+17.7
Odds
3.25

Draw No Bet

Boston River (DNB)

Void
Our model43.0%
The market57.1%
Edge
-14.1
Odds
1.75

Correct Score

Score: 0-1

Edge +2.6%Miss
Our model19.8%
The market17.2%
Edge
+2.6
Odds
5.80

Odds are the best price available when the prediction was published. Edge is model probability minus bookmaker implied probability.

Most likely scorelines

Model distribution before kick-off. The actual result is highlighted.

0-1

19.8%

0-0

13.1%

1-0

12.4%

We called 1 of 2 markets right here.
This weekend's fixtures are already live.

Every pick published before kick-off, with the reasoning and the confidence shown. Wins and losses both stay on the record.