Primera División · 3 August 2026AI PICK
Defensor Sportingvs
Cerro
2 - 1Full time · 1 of 4 right, 1 close · every pick published before kick-off
- Model said
- 80.9%
- Market said
- 65.4%
- Edge
- +15.5 pts
- Best odds
- 1.53
The call, locked before kick-off
CloseUnder 2.5 Goals
Goals Over/Under · best price 1.53
The market underrated this by 15.5 percentage points. That gap is the only reason we published the pick.
What the model saw
Close match - low confidence
How the two sides compared
Defensor Sporting
Cerro
Attack, defence and form are the pre-game snapshot from the last five matches, exactly as the model saw them.
Every market we called
1 of 4 right, 1 close
Goals Over/Under
Under 2.5 Goals
- Edge
- +15.5
- Odds
- 1.53
Double Chance
1X (Home or Draw)
- Edge
- -13.2
- Odds
- 1.16
Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score: No
- Edge
- -8.8
- Odds
- 1.61
Match Winner
Draw
- Edge
- +3.7
- Odds
- 3.32
Correct Score
Score: 0-0
- Edge
- -3.6
- Odds
- 3.63
Odds are the best price available when the prediction was published. Edge is model probability minus bookmaker implied probability.
Most likely scorelines
Model distribution before kick-off. The actual result is highlighted.
0-0
23.9%
1-0
16.2%
1-1
14.1%
We called 1 of 4 markets right here.
This weekend's fixtures are already live.
Every pick published before kick-off, with the reasoning and the confidence shown. Wins and losses both stay on the record.