Primera División - Apertura · 25 July 2026AI PICK

Defensor SportingvsLiverpool Montevideo

1 - 2

Full time · 3 of 5 right, 1 close · every pick published before kick-off

We called: Under 2.5 Goals
Model confidence: 55.4%
Markets called: 3 of 5 right, 1 close
Final score: 1 - 2

The call, locked before kick-off

Under 2.5 Goals

Goals Over/Under · best price 1.57

MediumEdge -6.3%

Our model55.4%

The market61.7%

What the model saw

Close match - low confidence

How the two sides compared

Defensor Sporting

Attack33

Defence59

Form36

Liverpool Montevideo

Attack44

Defence49

Form33

Attack, defence and form are the pre-game snapshot from the last five matches, exactly as the model saw them.

Every market we called

3 of 5 right, 1 close

Double Chance

X2 (Draw or Away)

Edge +8.8%Correct

Our model74.2%

The market65.4%

Edge: +8.8
Odds: 1.53

Draw No Bet

Liverpool Montevideo (DNB)

Correct

Our model56.8%

The market57.1%

Edge: -0.3
Odds: 1.75

Goals Over/Under

Under 2.5 Goals

Our model55.4%

The market61.7%

Edge: -6.3
Odds: 1.57

Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score: No

Miss

Our model55.3%

The market55.5%

Edge: -0.2
Odds: 1.73

Match Winner

Liverpool Montevideo Win

Edge +3.5%Correct

Our model39.2%

The market35.7%

Edge: +3.5
Odds: 2.80

Correct Score

Score: 0-1

Miss

Our model13.1%

The market15.1%

Edge: -2.0
Odds: 6.61

Odds are the best price available when the prediction was published. Edge is model probability minus bookmaker implied probability.

Most likely scorelines

Model distribution before kick-off. The actual result is highlighted.

0-1

13.1%

0-0

15.3%

1-1

15.1%

We called 3 of 5 markets right here.
This weekend's fixtures are already live.

Every pick published before kick-off, with the reasoning and the confidence shown. Wins and losses both stay on the record.

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