Primera División - Apertura · 24 May 2026AI PICK
Defensor Sportingvs
Penarol
0 - 2Full time · 1 of 2 right · every pick published before kick-off
- Model said
- 66.9%
- Market said
- 61.7%
- Edge
- +5.2 pts
- Best odds
- 1.62
The call, locked before kick-off
CorrectUnder 2.5 Goals
Goals Over/Under · best price 1.62
The market underrated this by 5.2 percentage points. That gap is the only reason we published the pick.
What the model saw
Close match - low confidence
How the two sides compared
Defensor Sporting
Penarol
Attack, defence and form are the pre-game snapshot from the last five matches, exactly as the model saw them.
Every market we called
1 of 2 right
Double Chance
12 (Home or Away)
- Edge
- +11.5
- Odds
- 1.36
Goals Over/Under
Under 2.5 Goals
- Edge
- +5.2
- Odds
- 1.62
Match Winner
Penarol Win
- Edge
- +5.6
- Odds
- 2.25
Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score: Yes
- Edge
- -6.7
- Odds
- 1.91
Draw No Bet
Penarol (DNB)
- Edge
- -13.1
- Odds
- 1.75
Correct Score
Score: 0-1
- Edge
- +2.3
- Odds
- 6.45
Odds are the best price available when the prediction was published. Edge is model probability minus bookmaker implied probability.
Most likely scorelines
Model distribution before kick-off. The actual result is highlighted.
0-1
17.8%
1-0
11.7%
1-1
10.8%
We called 1 of 2 markets right here.
This weekend's fixtures are already live.
Every pick published before kick-off, with the reasoning and the confidence shown. Wins and losses both stay on the record.