Primera A badgePrimera A · 16 May 2026AI PICK

Deportes Tolima badgeDeportes TolimavsAtletico Nacional badgeAtletico Nacional

0 - 1
Miss

Full time · 1 of 5 right · every pick published before kick-off

Model said
70.9%
Market said
48.8%
Edge
+22.1 pts
Best odds
2.05

The call, locked before kick-off

Miss

Over 2.5 Goals

Goals Over/Under · best price 2.05

High confidenceEdge +22.1%
Our model70.9%
The market48.8%

The market underrated this by 22.1 percentage points. That gap is the only reason we published the pick.

What the model saw

Close match - low confidence

How the two sides compared

Deportes Tolima badge

Deportes Tolima

Attack66
Defence79
Form62
Atletico Nacional badge

Atletico Nacional

Attack77
Defence63
Form69

Attack, defence and form are the pre-game snapshot from the last five matches, exactly as the model saw them.

Every market we called

1 of 5 right

Double Chance

12 (Home or Away)

Edge +9.8%Correct
Our model85.0%
The market75.2%
Edge
+9.8
Odds
1.33

Goals Over/Under

Over 2.5 Goals

Edge +22.1%Miss
Our model70.9%
The market48.8%
Edge
+22.1
Odds
2.05

Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score: Yes

Edge +11.7%Miss
Our model67.3%
The market55.6%
Edge
+11.7
Odds
1.80

Draw No Bet

Deportes Tolima (DNB)

Miss
Our model49.0%
The market57.1%
Edge
-8.1
Odds
1.75

Match Winner

Deportes Tolima Win

Edge +13.0%Miss
Our model48.7%
The market35.7%
Edge
+13.0
Odds
2.80

Correct Score

Score: 1-2

Edge +1.0%
Our model8.0%
The market7.0%
Edge
+1.0
Odds
14.32

Odds are the best price available when the prediction was published. Edge is model probability minus bookmaker implied probability.

Most likely scorelines

Model distribution before kick-off. The actual result is highlighted.

1-2

8.0%

2-1

7.6%

2-2

7.2%

We called 1 of 5 markets right here.
This weekend's fixtures are already live.

Every pick published before kick-off, with the reasoning and the confidence shown. Wins and losses both stay on the record.