Primera División - Apertura · 31 May 2026AI PICK

Deportivo MaldonadovsClub Nacional

3 - 0

Miss

Full time · 4 of 5 right · every pick published before kick-off

Model said: 64.2%
Market said: 57.8%
Edge: +6.4 pts
Best odds: 1.73

The call, locked before kick-off

Miss

Both Teams To Score: Yes

Both Teams To Score · best price 1.73

MediumEdge +6.4%

Our model64.2%

The market57.8%

The market underrated this by 6.4 percentage points. That gap is the only reason we published the pick.

What the model saw

Close match - low confidence

How the two sides compared

Deportivo Maldonado

Attack59

Defence56

Form60

Club Nacional

Attack67

Defence39

Form51

Attack, defence and form are the pre-game snapshot from the last five matches, exactly as the model saw them.

Every market we called

4 of 5 right

Double Chance

12 (Home or Away)

Edge +11.5%Correct

Our model85.0%

The market73.5%

Edge: +11.5
Odds: 1.36

Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score: Yes

Edge +6.4%Miss

Our model64.2%

The market57.8%

Edge: +6.4
Odds: 1.73

Goals Over/Under

Over 2.5 Goals

Edge +12.4%Correct

Our model63.7%

The market51.3%

Edge: +12.4
Odds: 1.95

Draw No Bet

Deportivo Maldonado (DNB)

Correct

Our model49.0%

The market57.1%

Edge: -8.1
Odds: 1.75

Match Winner

Deportivo Maldonado Win

Edge +9.7%Correct

Our model42.0%

The market32.3%

Edge: +9.7
Odds: 3.10

Correct Score

Score: 1-1

Edge +1.1%

Our model8.5%

The market7.4%

Edge: +1.1
Odds: 13.49

Odds are the best price available when the prediction was published. Edge is model probability minus bookmaker implied probability.

Most likely scorelines

Model distribution before kick-off. The actual result is highlighted.

1-1

8.5%

1-2

8.5%

2-1

8.0%

We called 4 of 5 markets right here.
This weekend's fixtures are already live.

Every pick published before kick-off, with the reasoning and the confidence shown. Wins and losses both stay on the record.

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