Primera División - Apertura · 18 May 2026AI PICK

Deportivo MaldonadovsDanubio

3 - 1

Correct

Full time · 5 of 5 right · every pick published before kick-off

Model said: 65.2%
Market said: 51.3%
Edge: +13.9 pts
Best odds: 1.95

The call, locked before kick-off

Correct

Deportivo Maldonado Win

Match Winner · best price 1.95

MediumEdge +13.9%

Our model65.2%

The market51.3%

The market underrated this by 13.9 percentage points. That gap is the only reason we published the pick.

What the model saw

Moderate prediction - medium confidence

How the two sides compared

Deportivo Maldonado

Attack64

Defence56

Form64

Danubio

Attack45

Defence43

Form40

Attack, defence and form are the pre-game snapshot from the last five matches, exactly as the model saw them.

Every market we called

5 of 5 right

Double Chance

12 (Home or Away)

Edge +9.8%Correct

Our model85.0%

The market75.2%

Edge: +9.8
Odds: 1.33

Match Winner

Deportivo Maldonado Win

Edge +13.9%Correct

Our model65.2%

The market51.3%

Edge: +13.9
Odds: 1.95

Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score: Yes

Edge +8.9%Correct

Our model58.9%

The market50.0%

Edge: +8.9
Odds: 2.00

Draw No Bet

Deportivo Maldonado (DNB)

Edge +0.9%Correct

Our model58.0%

The market57.1%

Edge: +0.9
Odds: 1.75

Goals Over/Under

Over 2.5 Goals

Edge +10.7%Correct

Our model55.1%

The market44.4%

Edge: +10.7
Odds: 2.25

Correct Score

Score: 1-0

Edge +1.5%

Our model11.5%

The market10.0%

Edge: +1.5
Odds: 9.97

Odds are the best price available when the prediction was published. Edge is model probability minus bookmaker implied probability.

Most likely scorelines

Model distribution before kick-off. The actual result is highlighted.

1-0

11.5%

2-1

9.8%

1-1

9.3%

We called 5 of 5 markets right here.
This weekend's fixtures are already live.

Every pick published before kick-off, with the reasoning and the confidence shown. Wins and losses both stay on the record.

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