Primera División · 10 August 2026AI PICK

Deportivo MaldonadovsRacing Montevideo

2 - 2

Correct

Full time · 3 of 4 right · every pick published before kick-off

Model said: 54.5%
Market said: 39.4%
Edge: +15.1 pts
Best odds: 2.50

The call, locked before kick-off

Correct

Over 2.5 Goals

Goals Over/Under · best price 2.50

LowEdge +15.1%

Our model54.5%

The market39.4%

The market underrated this by 15.1 percentage points. That gap is the only reason we published the pick.

What the model saw

Moderate prediction - medium confidence

How the two sides compared

Deportivo Maldonado

Attack70

Defence63

Form62

Racing Montevideo

Attack39

Defence80

Form56

Attack, defence and form are the pre-game snapshot from the last five matches, exactly as the model saw them.

Every market we called

3 of 4 right

Double Chance

1X (Home or Draw)

Edge +4.1%Correct

Our model73.5%

The market69.4%

Edge: +4.1
Odds: 1.44

Draw No Bet

Deportivo Maldonado (DNB)

Edge +12.9%Void

Our model70.0%

The market57.1%

Edge: +12.9
Odds: 1.75

Goals Over/Under

Over 2.5 Goals

Edge +15.1%Correct

Our model54.5%

The market39.4%

Edge: +15.1
Odds: 2.50

Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score: Yes

Edge +5.6%Correct

Our model53.6%

The market48.0%

Edge: +5.6
Odds: 2.10

Match Winner

Deportivo Maldonado Win

Edge +10.0%Miss

Our model51.7%

The market41.7%

Edge: +10.0
Odds: 2.40

Correct Score

Score: 2-0

Miss

Our model10.9%

The market12.5%

Edge: -1.6
Odds: 7.97

Odds are the best price available when the prediction was published. Edge is model probability minus bookmaker implied probability.

Most likely scorelines

Model distribution before kick-off. The actual result is highlighted.

2-0

10.9%

1-1

12.3%

1-0

10.7%

We called 3 of 4 markets right here.
This weekend's fixtures are already live.

Every pick published before kick-off, with the reasoning and the confidence shown. Wins and losses both stay on the record.

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