League Cup · 8 August 2026AI PICK

DerbyvsLincoln

1 - 2

Full time · 0 of 5 right, 1 close · every pick published before kick-off

Model said: 56.5%
Market said: 46.3%
Edge: +10.2 pts
Best odds: 2.10

The call, locked before kick-off

Under 2.5 Goals

Goals Over/Under · best price 2.10

MediumEdge +10.2%

Our model56.5%

The market46.3%

The market underrated this by 10.2 percentage points. That gap is the only reason we published the pick.

What the model saw

Moderate prediction - medium confidence

How the two sides compared

Derby

Attack44

Defence56

Form39

Lincoln

Attack22

Defence38

Form33

Attack, defence and form are the pre-game snapshot from the last five matches, exactly as the model saw them.

Every market we called

0 of 5 right, 1 close

Double Chance

1X (Home or Draw)

Miss

Our model73.5%

The market73.5%

Edge: 0.0
Odds: 1.36

Draw No Bet

Derby (DNB)

Edge +12.9%Miss

Our model70.0%

The market57.1%

Edge: +12.9
Odds: 1.75

Goals Over/Under

Under 2.5 Goals

Edge +10.2%Close

Our model56.5%

The market46.3%

Edge: +10.2
Odds: 2.10

Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score: No

Edge +10.4%Miss

Our model54.6%

The market44.2%

Edge: +10.4
Odds: 2.20

Match Winner

Derby Win

Edge +4.1%Miss

Our model52.9%

The market48.8%

Edge: +4.1
Odds: 2.05

Correct Score

Score: 1-0

Miss

Our model15.1%

The market17.4%

Edge: -2.3
Odds: 5.75

Odds are the best price available when the prediction was published. Edge is model probability minus bookmaker implied probability.

Most likely scorelines

Model distribution before kick-off. The actual result is highlighted.

1-0

15.1%

1-1

13.2%

0-0

12.6%

We called 0 of 5 markets right here.
This weekend's fixtures are already live.

Every pick published before kick-off, with the reasoning and the confidence shown. Wins and losses both stay on the record.

Get the app See the full track record