Challenge Cup badgeChallenge Cup · 11 August 2026AI PICK

Edinburgh City badgeEdinburgh CityvsCowdenbeath badgeCowdenbeath

3 - 1
Miss

Full time · 3 of 5 right · every pick published before kick-off

Model said
55.7%
Market said
37.0%
Edge
+18.7 pts
Best odds
2.70

The call, locked before kick-off

Miss

Under 2.5 Goals

Goals Over/Under · best price 2.70

MediumEdge +18.7%
Our model55.7%
The market37.0%

The market underrated this by 18.7 percentage points. That gap is the only reason we published the pick.

What the model saw

Close match - low confidence

How the two sides compared

Edinburgh City badge

Edinburgh City

Attack33
Defence30
Form33
Cowdenbeath badge

Cowdenbeath

Attack22
Defence45
Form0

Attack, defence and form are the pre-game snapshot from the last five matches, exactly as the model saw them.

Every market we called

3 of 5 right

Double Chance

1X (Home or Draw)

Correct
Our model72.7%
The market92.6%
Edge
-19.9
Odds
1.08

Draw No Bet

Edinburgh City (DNB)

Edge +3.2%Correct
Our model60.3%
The market57.1%
Edge
+3.2
Odds
1.75

Goals Over/Under

Under 2.5 Goals

Edge +18.7%Miss
Our model55.7%
The market37.0%
Edge
+18.7
Odds
2.70

Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score: No

Edge +9.1%Miss
Our model54.6%
The market45.5%
Edge
+9.1
Odds
2.20

Match Winner

Edinburgh City Win

Correct
Our model43.1%
The market73.5%
Edge
-30.4
Odds
1.36

Correct Score

Score: 1-0

Miss
Our model16.5%
The market19.0%
Edge
-2.5
Odds
5.26

Odds are the best price available when the prediction was published. Edge is model probability minus bookmaker implied probability.

Most likely scorelines

Model distribution before kick-off. The actual result is highlighted.

1-0

16.5%

0-0

18.2%

1-1

14.4%

We called 3 of 5 markets right here.
This weekend's fixtures are already live.

Every pick published before kick-off, with the reasoning and the confidence shown. Wins and losses both stay on the record.