Segunda División badgeSegunda División · 23 August 2026AI PICK

Eibar badgeEibarvsValladolid badgeValladolid

1 - 0
Miss

Full time · 3 of 5 right · every pick published before kick-off

Model said
58.4%
Market said
42.9%
Edge
+15.5 pts
Best odds
2.22

The call, locked before kick-off

Miss

Over 2.5 Goals

Goals Over/Under · best price 2.22

MediumEdge +15.5%
Our model58.4%
The market42.9%

The market underrated this by 15.5 percentage points. That gap is the only reason we published the pick.

What the model saw

Close match - low confidence

How the two sides compared

Eibar badge

Eibar

Attack78
Defence50
Form50
Valladolid badge

Valladolid

Attack78
Defence59
Form56

Attack, defence and form are the pre-game snapshot from the last five matches, exactly as the model saw them.

Every market we called

3 of 5 right

Double Chance

12 (Home or Away)

Edge +5.2%Correct
Our model77.1%
The market71.9%
Edge
+5.2
Odds
1.39

Goals Over/Under

Over 2.5 Goals

Edge +15.5%Miss
Our model58.4%
The market42.9%
Edge
+15.5
Odds
2.22

Draw No Bet

Eibar (DNB)

Correct
Our model54.6%
The market63.3%
Edge
-8.7
Odds
1.58

Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score: Yes

Edge +3.0%Miss
Our model54.2%
The market51.2%
Edge
+3.0
Odds
1.85

Match Winner

Eibar Win

Correct
Our model42.1%
The market43.9%
Edge
-1.8
Odds
2.28

Correct Score

Score: 2-1

Miss
Our model8.1%
The market9.3%
Edge
-1.2
Odds
10.72

Odds are the best price available when the prediction was published. Edge is model probability minus bookmaker implied probability.

Most likely scorelines

Model distribution before kick-off. The actual result is highlighted.

2-1

8.1%

1-1

9.2%

1-2

7.3%

We called 3 of 5 markets right here.
This weekend's fixtures are already live.

Every pick published before kick-off, with the reasoning and the confidence shown. Wins and losses both stay on the record.