Primera División · 3 September 2026AI PICK

Estudiantes de Merida FCvsUCV

1 - 1

Correct

Full time · 2 of 4 right · every pick published before kick-off

Model said: 61.2%
Market said: 54.6%
Edge: +6.6 pts
Best odds: 1.83

The call, locked before kick-off

Correct

Under 2.5 Goals

Goals Over/Under · best price 1.83

MediumEdge +6.6%

Our model61.2%

The market54.6%

The market underrated this by 6.6 percentage points. That gap is the only reason we published the pick.

What the model saw

Close match - low confidence

How the two sides compared

Estudiantes de Merida FC

Attack37

Defence49

Form44

UCV

Attack48

Defence33

Form31

Attack, defence and form are the pre-game snapshot from the last five matches, exactly as the model saw them.

Every market we called

2 of 4 right

Double Chance

X2 (Draw or Away)

Edge +0.9%Correct

Our model70.3%

The market69.4%

Edge: +0.9
Odds: 1.44

Goals Over/Under

Under 2.5 Goals

Edge +6.6%Correct

Our model61.2%

The market54.6%

Edge: +6.6
Odds: 1.83

Draw No Bet

UCV (DNB)

Edge +9.9%Void

Our model56.4%

The market46.5%

Edge: +9.9
Odds: 2.15

Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score: No

Edge +6.3%Miss

Our model54.6%

The market48.3%

Edge: +6.3
Odds: 2.07

Match Winner

UCV Win

Edge +2.0%Miss

Our model38.5%

The market36.5%

Edge: +2.0
Odds: 2.74

Correct Score

Score: 0-1

Miss

Our model11.6%

The market13.3%

Edge: -1.7
Odds: 7.51

Odds are the best price available when the prediction was published. Edge is model probability minus bookmaker implied probability.

Most likely scorelines

Model distribution before kick-off. The actual result is highlighted.

0-1

11.6%

1-1

15.0% · actual

0-0

12.8%

We called 2 of 4 markets right here.
This weekend's fixtures are already live.

Every pick published before kick-off, with the reasoning and the confidence shown. Wins and losses both stay on the record.

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