Primeira Liga badgePrimeira Liga · 2 May 2026AI PICK

FC Porto badgeFC PortovsAlverca badgeAlverca

1 - 0
Miss

Full time · 3 of 5 right · every pick published before kick-off

Model said
60.3%
Market said
45.5%
Edge
+14.8 pts
Best odds
2.20

The call, locked before kick-off

Miss

Both Teams To Score: Yes

Both Teams To Score · best price 2.20

MediumEdge +14.8%
Our model60.3%
The market45.5%

The market underrated this by 14.8 percentage points. That gap is the only reason we published the pick.

What the model saw

Moderate prediction - medium confidence

How the two sides compared

FC Porto badge

FC Porto

Attack62
Defence84
Form69
Alverca badge

Alverca

Attack45
Defence46
Form47

Attack, defence and form are the pre-game snapshot from the last five matches, exactly as the model saw them.

Every market we called

3 of 5 right

Double Chance

12 (Home or Away)

Correct
Our model85.0%
The market89.3%
Edge
-4.3
Odds
1.12

Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score: Yes

Edge +14.8%Miss
Our model60.3%
The market45.5%
Edge
+14.8
Odds
2.20

Goals Over/Under

Over 2.5 Goals

Miss
Our model57.4%
The market63.7%
Edge
-6.3
Odds
1.57

Draw No Bet

FC Porto (DNB)

Correct
Our model57.0%
The market57.1%
Edge
-0.1
Odds
1.75

Match Winner

FC Porto Win

Edge +6.3%Correct
Our model56.3%
The market50.0%
Edge
+6.3
Odds
2.00

Odds are the best price available when the prediction was published. Edge is model probability minus bookmaker implied probability.

We called 3 of 5 markets right here.
This weekend's fixtures are already live.

Every pick published before kick-off, with the reasoning and the confidence shown. Wins and losses both stay on the record.