FC Portovs
Manchester City
0 - 2Close
Full time · 3 of 5 right, 1 close · every pick published before kick-off
- Model said
- 58.6%
- Market said
- 57.9%
- Edge
- +0.7 pts
- Best odds
- 1.72
The call, locked before kick-off
CloseOver 2.5 Goals
Goals Over/Under · best price 1.72
MediumEdge +0.7%
Our model58.6%
The market57.9%
The market underrated this by 0.7 percentage points. That gap is the only reason we published the pick.
What the model saw
Close match - low confidence
Every market we called
3 of 5 right, 1 close
Double Chance
12 (Home or Away)
Correct
Our model78.7%
The market78.7%
- Edge
- 0.0
- Odds
- 1.27
Draw No Bet
Manchester City (DNB)
Correct
Our model60.1%
The market73.0%
- Edge
- -12.9
- Odds
- 1.37
Goals Over/Under
Over 2.5 Goals
Edge +0.7%Close
Our model58.6%
The market57.9%
- Edge
- +0.7
- Odds
- 1.72
Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score: Yes
Miss
Our model53.3%
The market58.8%
- Edge
- -5.5
- Odds
- 1.62
Match Winner
Manchester City Win
Correct
Our model47.3%
The market56.8%
- Edge
- -9.5
- Odds
- 1.76
Odds are the best price available when the prediction was published. Edge is model probability minus bookmaker implied probability.
We called 3 of 5 markets right here.
This weekend's fixtures are already live.
Every pick published before kick-off, with the reasoning and the confidence shown. Wins and losses both stay on the record.