Serie D badgeSerie D · 12 July 2026AI PICK

Ferroviario badgeFerroviariovsImperatriz badgeImperatriz

3 - 0
Miss

Full time · 3 of 4 right · every pick published before kick-off

Model said
58.0%
Market said
47.6%
Edge
+10.4 pts
Best odds
2.10

The call, locked before kick-off

Miss

Both Teams To Score: Yes

Both Teams To Score · best price 2.10

MediumEdge +10.4%
Our model58.0%
The market47.6%

The market underrated this by 10.4 percentage points. That gap is the only reason we published the pick.

What the model saw

Close match - low confidence

How the two sides compared

Ferroviario badge

Ferroviario

Attack60
Defence67
Form64
Imperatriz badge

Imperatriz

Attack61
Defence51
Form48

Attack, defence and form are the pre-game snapshot from the last five matches, exactly as the model saw them.

Every market we called

3 of 4 right

Draw No Bet

Ferroviario (DNB)

Edge +3.1%Correct
Our model60.2%
The market57.1%
Edge
+3.1
Odds
1.75

Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score: Yes

Edge +10.4%Miss
Our model58.0%
The market47.6%
Edge
+10.4
Odds
2.10

Goals Over/Under

Over 2.5 Goals

Edge +7.1%Correct
Our model55.9%
The market48.8%
Edge
+7.1
Odds
2.05

Double Chance

1X (Home or Draw)

Our model50.0%
The market90.9%
Edge
-40.9
Odds
1.10

Match Winner

Ferroviario Win

Correct
Our model41.8%
The market64.5%
Edge
-22.7
Odds
1.55

Correct Score

Score: 2-1

Close
Our model8.7%
The market10.0%
Edge
-1.3
Odds
10.02

Odds are the best price available when the prediction was published. Edge is model probability minus bookmaker implied probability.

Most likely scorelines

Model distribution before kick-off. The actual result is highlighted.

2-1

8.7%

1-1

13.1%

1-2

8.1%

We called 3 of 4 markets right here.
This weekend's fixtures are already live.

Every pick published before kick-off, with the reasoning and the confidence shown. Wins and losses both stay on the record.