Serie C · 28 June 2026AI PICK

FigueirensevsGuarani Campinas

1 - 1

Full time · 1 of 3 right, 1 close · every pick published before kick-off

Model said: 55.4%
Market said: 44.4%
Edge: +11.0 pts
Best odds: 2.25

The call, locked before kick-off

Over 2.5 Goals

Goals Over/Under · best price 2.25

MediumEdge +11.0%

Our model55.4%

The market44.4%

The market underrated this by 11.0 percentage points. That gap is the only reason we published the pick.

What the model saw

Close match - low confidence

How the two sides compared

Figueirense

Attack44

Defence37

Form40

Guarani Campinas

Attack75

Defence61

Form60

Attack, defence and form are the pre-game snapshot from the last five matches, exactly as the model saw them.

Every market we called

1 of 3 right, 1 close

Double Chance

12 (Home or Away)

Miss

Our model75.3%

The market76.9%

Edge: -1.6
Odds: 1.30

Goals Over/Under

Over 2.5 Goals

Edge +11.0%Close

Our model55.4%

The market44.4%

Edge: +11.0
Odds: 2.25

Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score: Yes

Edge +1.6%Correct

Our model51.6%

The market50.0%

Edge: +1.6
Odds: 2.00

Draw No Bet

Guarani Campinas (DNB)

Our model38.7%

The market57.1%

Edge: -18.4
Odds: 1.75

Match Winner

Guarani Campinas Win

Our model34.6%

The market42.6%

Edge: -8.0
Odds: 2.35

Correct Score

Score: 0-1

Edge +1.5%

Our model12.0%

The market10.5%

Edge: +1.5
Odds: 9.55

Odds are the best price available when the prediction was published. Edge is model probability minus bookmaker implied probability.

Most likely scorelines

Model distribution before kick-off. The actual result is highlighted.

0-1

12.0%

1-1

9.7% · actual

1-2

9.7%

We called 1 of 3 markets right here.
This weekend's fixtures are already live.

Every pick published before kick-off, with the reasoning and the confidence shown. Wins and losses both stay on the record.

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