Serie A badgeSerie A · 6 September 2026AI PICK

Fluminense badgeFluminensevsVasco DA Gama badgeVasco DA Gama

1 - 0
Miss

Full time · 3 of 5 right · every pick published before kick-off

Model said
54.6%
Market said
50.0%
Edge
+4.6 pts
Best odds
1.90

The call, locked before kick-off

Miss

Both Teams To Score: Yes

Both Teams To Score · best price 1.90

LowEdge +4.6%
Our model54.6%
The market50.0%

The market underrated this by 4.6 percentage points. That gap is the only reason we published the pick.

What the model saw

Moderate prediction - medium confidence

How the two sides compared

Fluminense badge

Fluminense

Attack65
Defence62
Form55
Vasco DA Gama badge

Vasco DA Gama

Attack43
Defence62
Form48

Attack, defence and form are the pre-game snapshot from the last five matches, exactly as the model saw them.

Every market we called

3 of 5 right

Double Chance

1X (Home or Draw)

Correct
Our model77.3%
The market83.3%
Edge
-6.0
Odds
1.20

Draw No Bet

Fluminense (DNB)

Correct
Our model69.4%
The market72.5%
Edge
-3.1
Odds
1.38

Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score: Yes

Edge +4.6%Miss
Our model54.6%
The market50.0%
Edge
+4.6
Odds
1.90

Goals Over/Under

Over 2.5 Goals

Edge +8.3%Miss
Our model54.6%
The market46.3%
Edge
+8.3
Odds
2.08

Match Winner

Fluminense Win

Correct
Our model51.6%
The market56.2%
Edge
-4.6
Odds
1.78

Correct Score

Score: 2-1

Miss
Our model9.9%
The market11.4%
Edge
-1.5
Odds
8.76

Odds are the best price available when the prediction was published. Edge is model probability minus bookmaker implied probability.

Most likely scorelines

Model distribution before kick-off. The actual result is highlighted.

2-1

9.9%

1-1

11.8%

2-0

9.0%

We called 3 of 5 markets right here.
This weekend's fixtures are already live.

Every pick published before kick-off, with the reasoning and the confidence shown. Wins and losses both stay on the record.