Veikkausliiga badgeVeikkausliiga · 11 July 2026AI PICK

Gnistan badgeGnistanvsMariehamn badgeMariehamn

4 - 2
Miss

Full time · 3 of 5 right · every pick published before kick-off

Model said
54.1%
Market said
40.4%
Edge
+13.7 pts
Best odds
2.40

The call, locked before kick-off

Miss

Under 2.5 Goals

Goals Over/Under · best price 2.40

LowEdge +13.7%
Our model54.1%
The market40.4%

The market underrated this by 13.7 percentage points. That gap is the only reason we published the pick.

What the model saw

Moderate prediction - medium confidence

How the two sides compared

Gnistan badge

Gnistan

Attack52
Defence56
Form49
Mariehamn badge

Mariehamn

Attack25
Defence37
Form20

Attack, defence and form are the pre-game snapshot from the last five matches, exactly as the model saw them.

Every market we called

3 of 5 right

Draw No Bet

Gnistan (DNB)

Edge +27.4%Correct
Our model84.5%
The market57.1%
Edge
+27.4
Odds
1.75

Double Chance

1X (Home or Draw)

Correct
Our model75.4%
The market90.1%
Edge
-14.7
Odds
1.11

Goals Over/Under

Under 2.5 Goals

Edge +13.7%Miss
Our model54.1%
The market40.4%
Edge
+13.7
Odds
2.40

Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score: No

Edge +4.1%Miss
Our model53.0%
The market48.9%
Edge
+4.1
Odds
1.95

Match Winner

Gnistan Win

Correct
Our model44.4%
The market72.5%
Edge
-28.1
Odds
1.38

Correct Score

Score: 1-0

Miss
Our model15.1%
The market17.4%
Edge
-2.3
Odds
5.75

Odds are the best price available when the prediction was published. Edge is model probability minus bookmaker implied probability.

Most likely scorelines

Model distribution before kick-off. The actual result is highlighted.

1-0

15.1%

1-1

13.2%

0-0

12.6%

We called 3 of 5 markets right here.
This weekend's fixtures are already live.

Every pick published before kick-off, with the reasoning and the confidence shown. Wins and losses both stay on the record.