Serie D badgeSerie D · 24 May 2026AI PICK

Guarany de Bagé badgeGuarany de BagévsCascavel badgeCascavel

0 - 4
Miss

Full time · 1 of 4 right · every pick published before kick-off

Model said
73.9%
Market said
73.5%
Edge
+0.4 pts
Best odds
1.36

The call, locked before kick-off

Miss

Under 2.5 Goals

Goals Over/Under · best price 1.36

High confidenceEdge +0.4%
Our model73.9%
The market73.5%

The market underrated this by 0.4 percentage points. That gap is the only reason we published the pick.

What the model saw

Close match - low confidence

How the two sides compared

Guarany de Bagé badge

Guarany de Bagé

Attack27
Defence40
Form31
Cascavel badge

Cascavel

Attack39
Defence84
Form51

Attack, defence and form are the pre-game snapshot from the last five matches, exactly as the model saw them.

Every market we called

1 of 4 right

Double Chance

12 (Home or Away)

Edge +13.6%
Our model85.0%
The market71.4%
Edge
+13.6
Odds
1.40

Goals Over/Under

Under 2.5 Goals

Edge +0.4%Miss
Our model73.9%
The market73.5%
Edge
+0.4
Odds
1.36

Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score: No

Correct
Our model64.4%
The market65.4%
Edge
-1.0
Odds
1.53

Draw No Bet

Guarany de Bagé (DNB)

Miss
Our model45.0%
The market57.1%
Edge
-12.1
Odds
1.75

Match Winner

Guarany de Bagé Win

Edge +7.5%Miss
Our model43.2%
The market35.7%
Edge
+7.5
Odds
2.80

Correct Score

Score: 0-1

Edge +2.6%Miss
Our model20.1%
The market17.5%
Edge
+2.6
Odds
5.73

Odds are the best price available when the prediction was published. Edge is model probability minus bookmaker implied probability.

Most likely scorelines

Model distribution before kick-off. The actual result is highlighted.

0-1

20.1%

0-0

18.3%

1-0

16.0%

We called 1 of 4 markets right here.
This weekend's fixtures are already live.

Every pick published before kick-off, with the reasoning and the confidence shown. Wins and losses both stay on the record.