Serie D badgeSerie D · 10 May 2026AI PICK

Guarany de Bagé badgeGuarany de BagévsSanta Catarina badgeSanta Catarina

1 - 0
Correct

Full time · 1 of 2 right · every pick published before kick-off

We called
Under 2.5 Goals
Model confidence
59.7%
Markets called
1 of 2 right
Final score
1 - 0

The call, locked before kick-off

Correct

Under 2.5 Goals

Goals Over/Under · best price 1.57

MediumEdge -4.0%
Our model59.7%
The market63.7%

What the model saw

Close match - low confidence

How the two sides compared

Guarany de Bagé badge

Guarany de Bagé

Attack27
Defence45
Form33
Santa Catarina badge

Santa Catarina

Attack63
Defence44
Form43

Attack, defence and form are the pre-game snapshot from the last five matches, exactly as the model saw them.

Every market we called

1 of 2 right

Double Chance

12 (Home or Away)

Edge +8.1%
Our model85.0%
The market76.9%
Edge
+8.1
Odds
1.30

Goals Over/Under

Under 2.5 Goals

Correct
Our model59.7%
The market63.7%
Edge
-4.0
Odds
1.57

Draw No Bet

Santa Catarina (DNB)

Our model48.0%
The market57.1%
Edge
-9.1
Odds
1.75

Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score: Yes

Miss
Our model44.6%
The market50.0%
Edge
-5.4
Odds
2.00

Match Winner

Santa Catarina Win

Our model30.0%
The market50.0%
Edge
-20.0
Odds
2.00

Correct Score

Score: 0-1

Edge +2.4%Miss
Our model18.9%
The market16.5%
Edge
+2.4
Odds
6.07

Odds are the best price available when the prediction was published. Edge is model probability minus bookmaker implied probability.

Most likely scorelines

Model distribution before kick-off. The actual result is highlighted.

0-1

18.9%

0-2

12.0%

0-0

10.4%

We called 1 of 2 markets right here.
This weekend's fixtures are already live.

Every pick published before kick-off, with the reasoning and the confidence shown. Wins and losses both stay on the record.