Serie D badgeSerie D · 26 April 2026AI PICK

Guarany de Bagé badgeGuarany de BagévsSão Luiz badgeSão Luiz

0 - 1
Correct

Full time · 2 of 4 right · every pick published before kick-off

Model said
78.3%
Market said
66.7%
Edge
+11.6 pts
Best odds
1.50

The call, locked before kick-off

Correct

Under 2.5 Goals

Goals Over/Under · best price 1.50

High confidenceEdge +11.6%
Our model78.3%
The market66.7%

The market underrated this by 11.6 percentage points. That gap is the only reason we published the pick.

What the model saw

Close match - low confidence

How the two sides compared

Guarany de Bagé badge

Guarany de Bagé

Attack28
Defence42
Form33
São Luiz badge

São Luiz

Attack39
Defence35
Form29

Attack, defence and form are the pre-game snapshot from the last five matches, exactly as the model saw them.

Every market we called

2 of 4 right

Double Chance

12 (Home or Away)

Edge +8.1%
Our model85.0%
The market76.9%
Edge
+8.1
Odds
1.30

Goals Over/Under

Under 2.5 Goals

Edge +11.6%Correct
Our model78.3%
The market66.7%
Edge
+11.6
Odds
1.50

Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score: No

Edge +2.7%Correct
Our model64.4%
The market61.7%
Edge
+2.7
Odds
1.62

Match Winner

Guarany de Bagé Win

Miss
Our model49.0%
The market50.0%
Edge
-1.0
Odds
2.00

Draw No Bet

Guarany de Bagé (DNB)

Miss
Our model46.0%
The market57.1%
Edge
-11.1
Odds
1.75

Odds are the best price available when the prediction was published. Edge is model probability minus bookmaker implied probability.

We called 2 of 4 markets right here.
This weekend's fixtures are already live.

Every pick published before kick-off, with the reasoning and the confidence shown. Wins and losses both stay on the record.